Mortgage Rates Didn’t Drop Like Many Expected This Summer. Now What?

Written By: Erin Wall, San Antonio REALTOR® with LPT Realty
License Number: Texas - 833167
Date: September 1, 2026

If you spent the spring waiting for mortgage rates to fall this summer, you were not alone. There was plenty of hope that rates would ease enough to give homebuyers some much-needed breathing room. Instead, summer came and went without the meaningful drop many buyers were waiting for.

As of September 1, 2026, Mortgage News Daily showed the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.89%. Their daily snapshot also showed a 15-year fixed rate at 6.39%, FHA at 6.41%, VA at 6.43%, and jumbo at 6.92%. Rates vary by borrower, lender, loan program, credit profile, points, and other factors, but the overall message is pretty clear: the big summer rate drop many people hoped for did not happen.

For San Antonio buyers who have spent months waiting, that brings up an important question. Do you keep waiting for mortgage rates to drop, or start making decisions based on the market we actually have?

Why Didn’t Mortgage Rates Drop This Summer?

One of the biggest misconceptions about mortgage rates is that they are supposed to move predictably with the Federal Reserve. You may hear that the Fed could cut rates and assume mortgage rates will immediately follow. It is not quite that simple.

The Federal Reserve does not directly set 30-year mortgage rates. Mortgage rates are influenced by the bond market, Treasury yields, inflation expectations, economic data, investor sentiment, and expectations about where the economy is headed. That means rates can remain stubborn even when there is optimism about future Fed policy.

This is one reason trying to predict the exact month mortgage rates will fall can be so frustrating. There are simply too many moving pieces, and expectations can change quickly when new economic data comes out.

What Does 6.89% Mean for San Antonio Homebuyers?

A rate near 7% can certainly affect affordability, especially when buyers compare today's payment with what the same home might have cost to finance several years ago. That is a real consideration, and I would never tell someone to ignore the monthly payment just because they want to own a home.

What I would encourage buyers to do is focus on the numbers they can actually work with today. Instead of asking only, "When will rates come down?" it can be more helpful to ask, "What can I comfortably afford at today's rate?"

That conversation can include your purchase price, down payment, estimated property taxes, homeowners insurance, HOA fees, closing costs, and the type of financing you plan to use. Once you know your comfortable monthly payment, we can look at homes that actually fit it.

Waiting for Lower Rates Has a Trade-Off

There is another part of the conversation that does not get talked about enough. If mortgage rates eventually make a noticeable move downward, you probably will not be the only buyer who notices.

Some buyers who have been sitting on the sidelines may decide to jump back into the market. If that happens, desirable San Antonio homes could see increased competition. Depending on the neighborhood, price point, and inventory at the time, buyers could potentially have less negotiating power than they have today.

That does not mean you should buy now because you are afraid of future competition. It means mortgage rates are only one part of the equation.

A buyer who purchases at a higher rate but negotiates a better sales price, seller-paid closing costs, repairs, or other favorable terms may be in a very different position than someone who waits for a lower rate and ends up competing against several other buyers.

Seller Concessions May Be Worth a Conversation

In a higher-rate environment, seller concessions can become especially valuable. Depending on the transaction and loan program, a seller may be able to contribute toward certain buyer closing costs or an interest-rate buydown.

For some buyers, reducing upfront expenses or temporarily or permanently lowering the interest rate can have a bigger impact than negotiating the same dollar amount off the sales price. The exact numbers depend on the loan, the property, the offer, and lender guidelines, so this is something buyers should discuss with their lender before deciding which strategy makes the most sense.

This is also why having your REALTOR® and lender communicate early in the process can be so helpful. Instead of negotiating simply for the sake of getting money off the price, you can structure an offer around what actually benefits you financially.

San Antonio Sellers Need to Pay Attention Too

Mortgage rates are not just a buyer issue. When rates remain elevated, sellers need to understand that many buyers are shopping according to a monthly payment rather than simply looking at the asking price.

Today's buyers may be comparing property taxes, insurance costs, HOA fees, the condition of the home, expected repairs, and financing costs all at once. A home that is priced too aggressively can become difficult for buyers to justify when their monthly housing costs are already being stretched by higher interest rates.

Pricing correctly from the beginning matters. So does understanding when a reasonable concession might help get a transaction together without unnecessarily reducing the home's value.

What If Rates Drop After You Buy?

This is probably one of the most common questions buyers have. If you buy at today's rate and mortgage rates eventually fall, refinancing may be an option worth discussing with a mortgage professional.

That does not mean you should buy a home today assuming you will definitely refinance later. Nobody can guarantee that rates will fall, when they will fall, or whether refinancing will make financial sense for you when they do.

Your home purchase should make sense based on the payment and financing you are agreeing to now. A future refinance should be viewed as a potential opportunity, not the plan required to make the purchase affordable.

The Summer Rate Drop Didn’t Arrive, So What Now?

September is here, and the substantial summer mortgage rate drop many people were waiting for did not materialize. Mortgage News Daily's September 1 snapshot showing the 30-year fixed rate at 6.89% is another reminder that trying to perfectly time mortgage rates can leave buyers waiting much longer than expected.

That does not mean everyone should rush out and buy a house. For some people, waiting is absolutely the right decision. You may need more time to save, improve your credit, pay down debt, build your emergency fund, or get to a place where the monthly payment feels comfortable.

But if the only thing keeping you from exploring the San Antonio housing market is the belief that mortgage rates are definitely about to drop, it may be worth looking at the numbers again. We can see what homes fit your budget, what sellers are willing to negotiate, and what today's payment would actually look like before you decide.

You do not have to predict the mortgage market perfectly to make a good real estate decision. You just need the numbers, the options, and a plan that makes sense for you.