The 2026 Election and Real Estate: What Bexar County Homeowners, Buyers, and Sellers Should Know

Written By: Erin Wall, San Antonio REALTOR® with LPT Realty
License Number: Texas - 833167
Date: August 31, 2026

Politics can feel far away from real estate, but elections can affect the cost of owning, buying, renting, and building a home.

Congress can vote on housing programs, federal taxes, first-time buyer help, mortgage rules, infrastructure, and programs that encourage new housing. Texas lawmakers can affect property taxes, insurance, land use, water, development, and other issues that hit closer to home.

That is why I wanted to put together a simple guide for Bexar County voters.

This is not an endorsement of a party or candidate. I am not telling anyone how to vote. I am looking at the 2026 election through a real estate lens and explaining what some of these races could mean for homeowners, buyers, sellers, landlords, builders, and investors.

First, What Are We Voting for in 2026?

The general election is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. This is a midterm election, not a presidential election. The next presidential election is in 2028. Even without a presidential race, this election is still important. Texans will vote for a U.S. senator, members of the U.S. House, Texas state officials, Texas lawmakers, and other offices.

The winners will help decide which party has more power in Washington and Austin. That matters because one politician usually cannot change housing policy alone. A proposal normally needs enough votes from other lawmakers before it can become law. So when we talk about a race "flipping," we are really talking about something larger.

One Democratic win does not suddenly make Texas a blue state. One Republican win does not make every Texas policy Republican. But several close races together can change control of the U.S. House or Senate.

That can change which housing and tax ideas have the best chance of moving forward.

The Texas U.S. Senate Race: Ken Paxton vs. James Talarico

One of the biggest races in Texas is between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico. This race has already become personal.

Talarico has been putting attention on Paxton's past controversies and legal matters. That includes Paxton's 2023 impeachment by the Texas House. Paxton was later acquitted by the Texas Senate. Paxton has denied wrongdoing and has said many of the attacks against him are politically motivated.

Paxton's campaign has taken a different approach. He has tried to paint Talarico as too progressive and a "Woke Liberal" for Texas and has tied him to the broader Democratic agenda.

Recent reporting shows that Talarico is continuing to make Paxton's past a major campaign issue while Paxton is trying to make the race about Talarico's political views.

For real estate voters, though, there is another part of this race worth watching: both candidates have talked about housing affordability, but they want to address it in different ways.

Ken Paxton's Housing Plan

Paxton has proposed federal tax deductions aimed at helping homebuyers. His plan includes a proposed $50,000 tax deduction for first-time homebuyers. He has also proposed another $50,000 deduction tied to a down payment when someone moves into a new primary home.

It is important to understand what that means.

A $50,000 tax deduction is not the same as the government giving a buyer $50,000 for a house. A deduction lowers the amount of income that may be taxed. How much money someone actually saves would depend on the final law and that person's tax situation. Paxton's approach is built around the idea that lowering taxes can leave families with more money to use toward housing and other costs.

James Talarico's Housing Plan

Talarico is also talking about housing costs, but his plan uses a different approach. His housing ideas include expanding the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit, cutting rules that can make housing harder to build, supporting ways to lower property insurance costs, and taking action against large companies that buy large numbers of homes.

He has also called for limits on practices he says allow large landlords to push rents higher. Talarico's basic argument is that helping buyers is only one part of the problem. He also wants to increase the number of homes available and address some of the forces that can raise housing costs.

Supporters of that plan may believe it goes after the bigger causes of housing affordability. Critics may worry that more federal rules or limits on investors could affect rental housing, investment, or development.

That is one of the main differences voters will have to consider.

Could the Senate Race Change Real Estate Policy?

Yes, but not by itself.

The U.S. Senate has 100 members. One Texas senator cannot simply create a new housing law. However, a very close Senate race can help decide which party controls the chamber.

If Republicans hold the Senate, Republican tax and housing ideas may have an easier path. If Democrats win enough seats to control it, Democratic housing programs and regulations may have an easier path. If Congress is divided between the parties, large housing plans can become harder to pass. That is why the Texas Senate race can matter even to people who are mainly concerned about their house payment, taxes, insurance, or the cost of buying a home.

Texas Redrew Its Congressional Map for 2026

There is another major change Bexar County voters should know about.

Texas redrew its U.S. House districts in 2025, even though the normal census redistricting had already happened earlier in the decade. The Republican-controlled Texas Legislature approved a new congressional map through House Bill 4. The new map is being used for the 2026 election. Republicans said the new map was lawful and supported their goals for representation. Democrats strongly opposed it and called the effort a political power grab.

The fight became so heated that Democratic state lawmakers left Texas for a time to try to stop the Legislature from having enough members present to move forward. Talarico was one of those Democratic lawmakers.

The map was designed in part to create more districts where Republican candidates could compete or win. Early versions were described as creating as many as five additional Republican-leaning seats. The final 2026 map changes parts of Bexar County too. Under the new map, Bexar County is divided among U.S. House Districts 20, 21, 23, 28, and 35.

This means it is especially important to check your own address before researching a congressional race. You may not be in the same district you were in during the last election.

Why These Bexar County U.S. House Races Matter

The U.S. House is where federal housing, tax, and spending bills also have to pass. That can include programs for affordable housing, first-time buyers, infrastructure, tax deductions, housing construction, rental housing, and other issues. A single Bexar County district may not decide national housing policy. But if several districts around Texas and the country change parties, they can change who controls the House.

Here is a simple look at the congressional races touching Bexar County.

District 20: Joaquin Castro, Edgardo Báez, and Anthony Tristan

District 20 includes much of San Antonio. The general election includes Democratic incumbent Joaquin Castro, Republican Edgardo Báez, and Independent Anthony Tristan.

• Castro has generally supported federal investment in working families, community programs, and government programs that help lower-income households.
• Báez has talked about affordable housing and improvements to neighborhoods and infrastructure.
• Tristan is running as an Independent, but there is less detailed public information available about a specific 2026 housing plan.

That is worth pointing out because voters should not guess a candidate's real estate position when that candidate has not clearly published one. From a political-control standpoint, a Castro win would keep the seat Democratic. A Báez win would be a Republican pickup. An Independent win would take the seat away from both major parties. If the national House race is very close, even one unexpected change can matter.

District 21: Kristin Hook vs. Mark Teixeira

District 21 includes parts of northwest San Antonio and the Hill Country. Democrat Kristin Hook is running against Republican Mark Teixeira.

• Hook has made housing affordability part of her campaign and has supported ideas aimed at limiting large rent increases.
• Teixeira has focused more on cutting taxes and regulations, growing the economy, and limiting federal government spending. He has also spoken about the need to build enough homes as Texas grows so younger families can still afford to buy.

That gives voters two different approaches. Hook is more open to using government rules or programs to address housing costs. Teixeira is more focused on lowering taxes, cutting rules, and encouraging growth through the private market. If Hook wins, Democrats would gain a seat. If Teixeira wins, Republicans would keep the seat in their column. That could matter if Democrats are only a few seats away from winning the U.S. House.

District 23: Katy Padilla Stout, Brandon Herrera, and Ben Mendoza

District 23 covers a huge area that stretches from San Antonio into West Texas. Democrat Katy Padilla Stout, Republican Brandon Herrera, and Independent Ben Mendoza are running in the general election.

• Padilla Stout's campaign is centered heavily on the cost of living. She argues that families need relief from rising everyday costs.
• Herrera has a more specific housing proposal. He supports reducing regulations on new single-family home construction. He also argues that stricter immigration policies would reduce pressure on housing demand.
• Mendoza is running as an Independent and has previously discussed tax relief for some older residents and retired military members, although his housing platform is not as detailed as the two major-party candidates.

Supporters may see fewer building rules as a way to make new homes easier and cheaper to build. Critics may question whether immigration policy would have the housing effect Herrera predicts or whether cutting regulations alone would lower home prices.

District 23 is getting national attention because Democrats now see it as a possible pickup opportunity, even though the new map leans Republican. If Padilla Stout wins, Democrats gain a House seat. If Herrera wins, Republicans keep the district.

District 28: Henry Cuellar vs. Tano Tijerina

District 28 reaches from South Texas into part of the greater San Antonio area. Democratic incumbent Henry Cuellar is running against Republican Tano Tijerina. Green Party candidate Marlon Durán is also running.

• Cuellar recently supported a bipartisan federal housing package aimed at increasing housing supply, expanding affordable housing, making development easier, and helping more families become homeowners.
• Tijerina has focused on lower taxes, cutting federal regulations, infrastructure, and protecting land, water, and power costs as large projects such as data centers grow in Texas.
  • Tijerina has also pointed to property tax rate cuts during his time as Webb County judge. However, reporting found that while the tax rate went down several times, average tax bills could still rise when property values increased.

That is actually a useful lesson for every Texas homeowner: a lower property tax rate does not always mean a lower property tax bill. Your property's value matters too.

District 28 is another seat Republicans would like to flip. A Cuellar win keeps the seat Democratic. A Tijerina win gives Republicans another House seat.

District 35: Johnny Garcia vs. Carlos De La Cruz

District 35 may be one of the most interesting races for the San Antonio area. The district changed greatly during the 2025 redistricting. The new version was drawn to be much more favorable to Republicans than the old district. Based on the 2024 presidential vote inside the new boundaries, Donald Trump would have carried the district by about 10 points. Democrat Johnny Garcia is running against Republican Carlos De La Cruz.

• Garcia has talked about affordable housing, lowering household costs, healthcare, jobs, and helping working families.
• De La Cruz has focused on cutting government spending, supporting lower taxes, encouraging business growth, and helping young people afford homes.

Again, that shows two different ways of looking at affordability. Garcia's side is more open to government programs that help with housing and household costs. De La Cruz's side puts more focus on lower taxes, less spending, and private economic growth.

A De La Cruz win would give Republicans a seat that the new map was designed to make easier for them to win. A Garcia win would mean Democrats held a district that became much more Republican on paper.

That is why this race could attract a lot of attention before November.

So Could These Races "Flip Texas"?

Not exactly. This is where political coverage can get confusing.

Texas does not become officially "blue" or "red" because of one House or Senate race. What can change is the number of Republicans and Democrats representing Texas. The bigger issue is whether those Texas seats help change control of Congress.

For example, suppose Democrats are only three seats away from taking control of the U.S. House. If they win three Republican-held districts, they may gain the majority. Then Democratic leaders would control House committees and have more power over which bills receive votes. The same works in the other direction. If Republicans protect their seats and gain Democratic seats, they may keep or grow their majority.

For real estate, that could affect which types of policies are more likely to move forward. A Republican-controlled Congress may be more open to tax deductions, fewer regulations, private development, and property-rights policies. A Democratic-controlled Congress may be more open to affordable housing funding, renter protections, first-time buyer assistance, housing tax credits, and limits on large institutional investors.

Neither result guarantees anything. Bills still have to pass. The president can also sign or veto legislation. Courts can sometimes become involved too.

What About the President?

President Donald Trump is in office during this midterm election.

That makes control of Congress important. If Republicans control both the House and Senate, the president may have an easier time passing parts of his agenda. If Democrats win one or both chambers, they can block, change, or negotiate more of that agenda. That includes bills involving taxes, housing, federal spending, energy, infrastructure, and other issues that can affect real estate.

The next presidential election will be in 2028. By then, housing affordability will likely still be a major issue because home prices, mortgage payments, rent, insurance, and property taxes affect millions of families.

The Texas Governor Race: Greg Abbott vs. Gina Hinojosa

Texas voters will also choose a governor in November. Republican Greg Abbott is running for a fourth term against Democrat Gina Hinojosa. Libertarian Pat Dixon is also running. For homeowners, this race is especially worth watching.

The governor cannot simply lower your property taxes or change Texas housing laws alone. Most major changes still have to pass through the Texas Legislature. But the governor can sign or veto legislation, call lawmakers into special sessions, make appointments to state boards and agencies, and use the governor's office to push certain issues to the front of the legislative agenda.

That gives the governor considerable influence over issues involving property taxes, housing, insurance, development, infrastructure, and the cost of owning property in Texas.

Greg Abbott's Property Tax and Housing Plan

Property taxes have become a major part of Abbott's campaign.

Abbott has proposed additional limits on how quickly property taxes and property appraisals can increase. One of his proposals would lower the current 10% annual appraisal cap on homesteaded properties to 3%. He has also proposed expanding appraisal protections to other types of property and moving toward appraisals that generally occur once every five years.

His larger goal is eventually eliminating the portion of a homeowner's property tax bill that goes toward funding school districts. That would be a major change to the way property taxes work in Texas.

It is also important to understand that eliminating school property taxes would not eliminate the need to fund public schools. The money would have to come from somewhere else. Such a change would require approval from lawmakers and ultimately Texas voters through a constitutional amendment, and there would still be a major debate over how the state replaces that revenue.

Abbott has also proposed giving voters more control over local tax increases and placing additional limits on how quickly local government spending can grow. For homeowners, appraisal limits could make increases in taxable value more predictable. For landlords, investors, and commercial property owners, expanding appraisal protections beyond homesteads could also become important depending on what ultimately passes.

But there are tradeoffs. Cities, counties, school districts, and other local governments rely heavily on property tax revenue to pay for schools, roads, police, fire departments, infrastructure, and other services. Any major reduction in that revenue raises the question of how those services will be funded instead.

Abbott has also talked about housing supply and homeowners insurance. His proposals include making it easier for builders to use pre-approved home designs in an effort to reduce construction time and costs. He has also proposed a state program aimed at helping homeowners install stronger, storm-resistant roofs and has pushed for insurance companies to consider those improvements when determining premiums.

Gina Hinojosa's Affordability Approach

Hinojosa has taken a different approach to the cost-of-living issue.

One of her major proposals is using part of Texas' available state surplus to send $1,500 directly to Texas households. Her argument is that Texas has accumulated large reserves while families are dealing with higher costs for housing, insurance, utilities, groceries, and other everyday expenses. A $1,500 payment would obviously not permanently lower the price of a house or a property tax bill. It would be direct financial relief rather than a permanent change to the property tax system. That difference helps show the larger contrast between the two candidates.

Abbott is putting more emphasis on changing the property tax and appraisal system, limiting local government spending, and reducing some of the rules and costs associated with housing.

Hinojosa is putting more emphasis on using state resources to provide financial relief to households and addressing affordability through state spending and programs.

Supporters of Abbott's approach may argue that permanently changing property taxes and appraisal rules does more to address the long-term cost of owning property. Critics may question how Texas would replace lost school and local government revenue and whether those changes could eventually affect other taxes or public services.

Supporters of Hinojosa's approach may argue that direct relief helps renters as well as homeowners and allows families to decide where they need the money most. Critics may argue that a one-time payment does not address the underlying reasons housing, insurance, taxes, and other costs have increased.

Could the Governor Actually Change Your Property Taxes?

Yes, but not alone.

This is another good example of why it matters to understand what an elected office can actually control. The governor can make property taxes a priority and push lawmakers to act. The governor can sign or veto legislation and can call special legislative sessions when lawmakers are not normally meeting. But the governor cannot simply announce that property taxes are eliminated.

The Texas House and Texas Senate would still have to approve major changes. Some proposals, especially changes requiring an amendment to the Texas Constitution, would ultimately have to be approved by Texas voters too. So the governor matters a lot when it comes to Texas real estate policy, but so do the people Texans elect to the Legislature.

That brings us to another part of the ballot that homeowners should not overlook.

Texas Politics Can Affect Your Home Even More Directly

Washington matters, but some of the biggest decisions for Texas homeowners happen in Austin. The Texas Legislature can deal with property taxes, homestead exemptions, appraisal rules, insurance, homeowners associations, landlord rules, land use, water, development, and local government power. Those issues can have a direct effect on the cost of owning property in Bexar County.

This is also why I would not judge a candidate only by whether there is an "R" or a "D" beside the name. Look at what that person actually wants to do.

A Republican may support one housing program and oppose another. A Democrat may agree with Republicans on one development issue and disagree on taxes.

Real estate policy is often more complicated than a party label.

Texas REALTORS® Supported Candidates

There is another resource available specifically for people who want to look at elections through a real estate lens. TREPAC, the Texas REALTORS® Political Action Committee, publishes candidates it supports.

The current Bexar County page includes candidates for statewide offices, the Texas Senate, and the Texas House. The list includes candidates based on issues that Texas REALTORS® believes affect real estate, private property rights, and the industry.

 

That does not mean every REALTOR® supports every candidate on the list.

It also does not mean a voter should automatically vote for someone because TREPAC supports that person.

 

See TREPAC/Texas REALTORS® supported candidates for Bexar County

Important Voting Dates for Bexar County

For the November 3, 2026 election, these are the main dates to remember:

• Last day to register to vote: October 5, 2026
• Early voting begins: October 19, 2026
• Last day to apply for a ballot by mail: October 23, 2026
• Early voting ends: October 30, 2026
• Election Day: November 3, 2026
• Election Day voting hours: 7:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m.

Bexar County says early voting locations can change from election to election, so check the county's website before you go.

Bexar County Elections

Bexar County Early Voting Information

Bexar County Election Information

Check Your Voter Registration

Check Your Congressional District Before You Vote

This is especially important in 2026. Because Texas changed its congressional map, do not assume you are still in the same U.S. House district. Two people who both say they live in San Antonio may have completely different congressional races on their ballots. The official Texas redistricting website confirms that the new congressional map, Plan C2333, is the map in effect for the 2026 elections.

Checking your voter registration and sample ballot ahead of time can save a lot of confusion.

What Should Homeowners, Buyers, and Sellers Watch For?

When I look at an election through a real estate lens, I pay attention to a few basic questions.

What does the candidate want to do about property taxes? Do they want to help first-time buyers? Do they support building more homes? What do they say about landlords and large investors? Do they support or oppose more government rules? What do they say about insurance, water, roads, and infrastructure?

 

I also think there is one question every voter should ask:

Does this office actually have the power to do what the candidate is promising?

A U.S. senator cannot personally lower your Bexar County property tax bill. A county official cannot change federal income tax law. A member of Congress cannot control your local appraisal district.

Knowing which level of government controls an issue makes it much easier to understand campaign promises.

Why This Election Is Worth Watching if You Own a Home

You do not have to love politics to pay attention to elections. Housing is already one of the biggest expenses most families have. Small changes in taxes, insurance, interest rates, development rules, or housing supply can add up to thousands of dollars.

The 2026 election will not magically make homes cheap or solve every real estate problem. But it will decide who gets a seat at the table when those decisions are made. That is why I think Bexar County homeowners, buyers, sellers, and future homeowners should know who is running, what they are proposing, and how those ideas could affect housing.

Read more than one source. Look at the candidates' own plans. Check their voting records when they have one. Pay attention to what they can actually control.

Then make your own decision at the ballot box.

 

Happy Voting!